## Risk Matrix — Demographic Stage × Financial Structure

**Banking Crisis Rate**

| Demo Stage | Market-Based | Mixed | Bank-Based |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Young | 0.9% (n=335) | 2.2% (n=186) | 0.0% (n=143) |
| Mid | 0.0% (n=193) | 1.2% (n=254) | 3.7% (n=217) |
| Old | 1.5% (n=136) | 1.8% (n=224) | 4.3% (n=304) |

**CA Reversal Rate**

| Demo Stage | Market-Based | Mixed | Bank-Based |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Young | 12.5% (n=335) | 13.4% (n=186) | 19.6% (n=143) |
| Mid | 8.8% (n=193) | 11.4% (n=254) | 12.4% (n=217) |
| Old | 7.4% (n=136) | 6.7% (n=224) | 7.9% (n=304) |

**Any Crisis Rate**

| Demo Stage | Market-Based | Mixed | Bank-Based |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Young | 2.7% (n=335) | 4.8% (n=186) | 2.8% (n=143) |
| Mid | 0.5% (n=193) | 2.4% (n=254) | 7.4% (n=217) |
| Old | 2.2% (n=136) | 1.8% (n=224) | 5.6% (n=304) |

**Cell Descriptives**

| Demo Stage | Market-Based | Mixed | Bank-Based |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Young | N=335, Z₁=-2.12, FS=-0.42 | N=186, Z₁=-2.35, FS=0.34 | N=143, Z₁=-2.23, FS=1.75 |
| Mid | N=193, Z₁=-0.55, FS=-0.34 | N=254, Z₁=-0.53, FS=0.33 | N=217, Z₁=-0.68, FS=1.56 |
| Old | N=136, Z₁=0.70, FS=-0.50 | N=224, Z₁=0.73, FS=0.39 | N=304, Z₁=0.84, FS=1.33 |

**Extended: Demo × KAOPEN → Banking Crisis Rate by Fin Structure**

| Demo/KAOPEN | Market-Based | Mixed | Bank-Based |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Young / Closed | 0.9% (n=110) | 1.2% (n=82) | 0.0% (n=76) |
| Young / Mid | 0.8% (n=126) | 6.1% (n=49) | 0.0% (n=41) |
| Young / Open | 1.1% (n=90) | 0.0% (n=44) | 0.0% (n=21) |
| Mid / Closed | 0.0% (n=12) | 1.9% (n=53) | 4.3% (n=70) |
| Mid / Mid | 0.0% (n=49) | 0.0% (n=91) | 3.1% (n=65) |
| Mid / Open | 0.0% (n=124) | 1.9% (n=104) | 3.8% (n=78) |
| Old / Closed | — | — | 6.2% (n=16) |
| Old / Mid | 0.0% (n=8) | 2.6% (n=38) | 4.4% (n=45) |
| Old / Open | 1.0% (n=101) | 1.7% (n=172) | 5.1% (n=197) |
